Leavers May Rue Going With The Tories

So one year into Brexit, and it is still a topic interesting enough for the Independent to feel that carrying out a poll on the details of what we think about will be newsworthy.

I dare say they were hoping for something a bit more exciting, but the gist of it is that the split that has been detectable more or less from the start is still not much different.  If you pick three people at random, you'll find one very much in favour of staying out, one very keen on getting back in and one person who isn't very excited by the topic and can probably be coaxed one way or the other.

Clearly it is what is going to happen to the opinions of that third person that will determine what happens next.  And the news from this poll is that they have become more negative in general.  They aren't swinging much either way, but they aren't impressed by Brexit so far.  Partisans on both sides can take some comfort from the results.  There is still a solid block of support for Brexit and it doesn't seem to be going anywhere quickly.  There is now a lead for rejoining, but not big enough that to seriously undermine Brexit's legitimacy.   In particular, Brexit remains popular enough that no politician is going to campaign against it without serious thought first.  But the Europhiles have an equally solid and large block of support and can realistically look forward to the undecideds continuing to drift in their direction.

But the Europhobes have a card to play that their opponents don't.  They have the government and the media on their side.  This gives them a lot of firepower in the ongoing debate.  In a close contest, this advantage could be decisive.  The undecided will tend to go with the flow, and if all the news and the official announcements line up with Brexit being a done deal then that is likely to hold the line for a considerable amount of time.

But is that what is going to happen?  The government's calculation might be quite different.  They are not interested in whether they can get votes for Brexit.  They are interested in whether Brexit will get votes for them.  It did in 2019.  It doesn't look like it will next time.  In fact, there's a pretty good case that the more they talk about Brexit the more they will drive their more liberal supporters to the Liberal Democrats.  There is also the hard core of really seriously anti-EU partisans for whom any compromise with Brussels is betrayal.  Reminding them about Brexit risks pushing them into the arms of the Reform Party.  The Conservatives short term interest is in getting Brexit off the agenda and keeping it there.  In the longer run, they won't be able to ignore the opinions of businesses and younger people forever.  The very people who are currently taking us out may well be advocating closer relations with the EU towards the end of the decade.  If you think the Tories place ideological purity above party self interest, you really haven't been paying attention.  No party that happily pairs the verb 'levelling' with the preposition 'up' should be trusted to carry out its promises.  

As an enthusiast for rejoining myself, it is a bit frustrating that we are wasting so much time and money indulging the short term requirements of a party that I almost never vote for and which hasn't got much in the way of achievements to point to despite a lot of time in office.   But at least I am not having something offered to me which will later be taken away.  I think the die hard Brexiters who think they have won a big victory are going to be much more disappointed when it turns out that it is to be given up without a fight.  The lesson is if you really believe in something don't hand it over to people who don't care about it as much as you do.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-boris-johnson-lies-b1980372.html